Top panel — cumulative heat forcing (W/m²): gross positive forcing by cause, partitioned by origin (fossil vs. ecological) and mechanism (CO₂ released vs. cooling lost). The three CO₂ bins partition the measured atmospheric-CO₂ forcing (IPCC AR6 +2.16 W/m²) — fossil (1.68, Global Carbon Project) + ecological land-use (+0.48: soil + deforestation biomass) — rather than summing independent bookkeeping estimates, which double-counts soil (Houghton & Nassikas 2017 bundles vegetation and soil). Soil CO₂ (brown): Sanderman et al. (2017), HYDE 3.2. Deforestation CO₂, biomass only (orange): Houghton & Nassikas (2017) less its soil term. Cooling loss (teal/blue, land + ocean): deforestation extent → W/m² via this paper's biophysical estimates (Part II table) — the novel contribution, not independently validated; ocean term ring-fenced. Fossil CO₂ (charcoal): Global Carbon Project. The stack is gross positive forcing; the IPCC's net +2.72 W/m² is the residual after aerosol cooling (−0.5 to −1.5), not shown.

Middle panel — measured CO₂ & temperature. CO₂ (gold, ppm): EPICA Dome C (Bereiter 2015), Law Dome (Etheridge 1996; MacFarling Meure 2006), Mauna Loa (Keeling/NOAA) — the ~7 ppm Orbis dip at ~1610 is visible. Global temperature (dark red, °C vs. 1850–1900): Marcott et al. (2013) + HadCRUT5/GISTEMP. After 2026 each curve splits into two scenarios — emissions only vs. + restoration.

Bottom panel — surface energy balance (illustrative, not measured). The paper's conceptual framework: surface heating (red) and surface cooling (green) begin matched, then diverge as cooling capacity is lost; their gap drives a lagged local temperature response (purple). In the restoration future, cooling rebounds within years-to-decades and local temperature falls faster than the slow CO₂ decline — biology as the fast lever.
Circled numbers (⓪–⑫) on the event line between the middle and bottom panels mark events — click the canvas or a list entry to highlight. Ocean SML degradation is genuinely uncertain.

10,000 Years of Hidden Heat Forcing

For ten thousand years, every time we cleared land, the local climate responded immediately — but the consequences compounded silently. Each new insult added to all the previous ones. The fastest lever we have is biology — and it is the only one that can be pulled back up.
Circled numbers (⓪–⑫) on the event line between the lower two panels mark moments in the story — click the canvas or a list entry to highlight. Top: cumulative heat forcing (W/m²) compounding over 10,000 years, partitioned by origin (fossil vs. ecological) and mechanism (CO₂ released vs. cooling lost). Middle: measured CO₂ and global temperature. Bottom: the surface energy balance — heating vs. cooling and its lagged effect on local temperature. At 2026, emissions stop and restoration begins, and two futures diverge.
Events — click to read the story